Looks like Armenia's growing economy is leaving fewer people without a job:
By the end of 2006 December unemployment level in Armenia dropped to 7.2 percent from 7.7 percent 12 months before. However, it rose in some provinces, particularly in the southernmost Syunik and Lori in the northeast.It would be interesting to see just how much unemployment increased around Armenia. For your convenience, I've pulled unemployment numbers from some countries to compare with:
...last year employment centers across the country found jobs for 8,268 people and another 10,250 were offered temporary jobs. Almost half of people who found jobs last year were in the capital city Yerevan. Mrs. Harutunian said there were vacancies for workers in Yerevan remaining unfilled for months. In regions there is a demand for doctors and school teachers.
The unemployment allowance has risen from 3,900 drams [$10.60] in 2003 to 12,000 Drams. [$32.70]
Turkey: 10.2% (source)
Germany: 9.6% (source)
United States: 4.5% (source)
Article Source: ArmenPress
6 comments:
Unemploymnt has NOT dropped to 7.2 percent. What has happened is that the number of REGISTERED unemployed has fallen to 7.2 percent.
On the other hand, many people work unrecorded in the shadow economy, especially markets, so I'm not sure if it balances itself out or not.
However, from looking at the lack of economic activity outside of markets in Yerevan and everywhere else apart from the capital's center, I somehow doubt it.
No doubt the economy is improving, but statistics like this are misleading albeit technically accurate.
Onnik,
I can only blog about what my sources tell me. Different countries calculate unemployment differently. Some places rely on random surveys, but we can always question the validity of that method. Other means involve counting the people who are asking for unemployment benefits, but there are always those who do not seek it, even if they seek work. It's a number that can be manupulated endlessly, but for the sake of having numbers to gauge the direction of the economy, it works fine.
As I said, I am very interested in the numbers for areas outside of Yerevan, but I do agree that they will show a less flattering picture.
How about this from Yerkir then?
According to official data, the unemployment rate in Armenia is even lower than that of Germany, which has unemployment rate of about 10%.
[...]
Just a superficial analysis of those numbers indicates that the official statistics does not show the real picture of the unemployment rate in the country. The studies carried out among households reveal that the real unemployment rate in Armenia is 4 times bigger than the numbers shown by the official statistics. Despite a decrease trend, the actual unemployment rate in Armenia stood at 31.3 percent in 2005. For comparison, it was 31.6 percent in 2004, 35.3 percent in
2002, 38.4 percent in 2001.
However, you're right. We have to go on statistics, although we (journalists) have to point out when every international organization and government official will admit they are somewhat misleading.
That said, my other point still stands, and this is mentioned in the Yerkir piece as well. There is also a lot of hidden employment.
But sure, the direction is down, no doubt. :-)
However, it's also worth adding a caveat when it is well known and very relevant.
However, that's ArmenPress' fault and not yours.
Incidently, with regards to how unemployment is officially calculated, it's interesting.
Here in Armenia, many people don't seek it because it takes a lot of time and effort and I think it does not last long, but I'm not sure on this so I could be wrong.
However, I know many unemployed people in Armenia who do not register as unemployed. On the other hand, they do a little bit of work in construction or the markets for anywhere between 1-3,000 drams a day.
Now, compare that with England where even if people are working off the books, they're also claiming unemployment benefit as well as other social payments such as housing allowance because it is significant enough although not as much as some would like.
In the U.K. and the U.S. we have the phenomenon of people "scrounging off the State" even, so I daresay that unemployment figures are fairly accurate. Certainly, in the U.K. nobody really doubts them like they do here.
Anyway, it is interesting as to why people even with hidden incomes don't claim benefits. Is it because the payment is so low? Well, I suppose that could be taken as a good sign when you consider that at some point in Armenia's recent history, many people would be grateful for approx $30 a month.
I just hope that the reason isn't something like people don't trust the system, corruption is involved, and so on. Maybe I'll ask in the next few days to see. It's interesting.
From RFE/RL's Emil Danielyan writing for EDM:
The economic upswing has clearly not been accompanied by the creation of a sufficient number of new jobs, with some independent studies suggesting that unemployment may still be as high as 30%.
Incidently, what on earth does this mean in the ArmenPress item -- 12 month work record for unemployment status?
Mrs. Harutunian said though the unemployment level dropped, the share of young men and women seeking jobs increased 26 percent, but she explained it by a legislative change that revoked a previously effective provision which gave the unemployed status only to people with at least 12 month job record.
If that's the case I can see one reason why some people won't be seeking to register as unemployed. Had they worked in the shadow economy -- construction, markets etc -- they won't have that 12 month employment history to use to claim.
Is that what this sentence really means? Really, I need to ask around again.
Back to the issue of statistics, however, and even reporting on the matter, it's interesting to look at how we report unemployment in the U.K.
The "number of people out of work and claiming unemployment benefit" according to this BBC report (as well as others)
Incidently, the CIA Factbook estimates real unemployment in Armenia to be 31.6 percent in 2005, but to show you how stupid official figures can be, it puts the OFFICIAL statistics for Azerbaijan at 1.1 percent (yeah, right).
Turkey is estimated at 10.2 percent, the U.S. is 5.1 percent, and Germany is 11.7 percent for the same year. Interestingly, Georgia is estimated at 12.6 percent.
Interesting finds, Onnik. I think the readers will be happy to see additional points of view on this very interesting topic!
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